Posts Tagged Electorate Polls

Te Tai Hauāuru poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%

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Te Tai Tonga poll

Maori TV have a poll of Te Tai Tonga.

Party Vote:

  • Labour 43% (+4% from election)
  • National 17% (+2%)
  • Maori Party 16% (+2%)
  • Greens 10% (-6%)
  • NZ First 8% (-1%)
  • Internet Mana 6% (nc)

Electorate Vote

  • Labour 48% (+7%)
  • Maori Party 17% (-15%) (Note new candidate, in 2011 candidate was incumbent MP)
  • Greens 9% (-6%)
  • Mana 9% (+1%)

Annoying the news report does not say who did the poll, or the sample size, which is essential to include in any report.

UPDATE: The video does have details thought. It was done by Reid Research and the margin of error suggest around 500 responses.

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Te Tai Tokerau poll

Stuff reports:

The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.

Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.

A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.

Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

The poll had Green and National candidates on 3 per cent each and NZ First on 2 per cent.

Another 18 per cent were either undecided or picked another option, but the pollsters did not provide a breakdown.

When it came to the party vote Labour was backed by 30 per cent, Mana by 19 per cent and the Maori Party 19 per cent

National scored 6 per cent, the Greens 8 per cent each and NZ First 3 per cent.

Fourteen per cent were undecided.

With undecideds taken out, Labour was on 35 per cent of the decided vote (34.7 per cent at the 2011 election), with Mana on 22 per cent (24.5 per cent in 2011) and Maori on 22 per cent (11.2 per cent in 2011). 

There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.

Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor. 

The survey of 500 had a margin of error of 4.3 per cent.

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Epsom poll

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home.

More said they would vote for a Labour candidate than for Banks. In a party vote, the vast majority would vote National, and fewer than 1 per cent would vote Act.

Nearly half of voters – 46.7 per cent – say they have a lower opinion of Banks after his statements of the past week on local government election donations.

The telephone survey of 510 eligible voters in the Epsom electorate aged 18+ has a margin of error of +/- 4.34 per cent.

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Te Tai Tonga poll November 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tonga electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Labour 36%
  • Maori 25%
  • National 15%
  • Greens 12%
  • Mana 17%
  • NZ First 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Rahui Katene (Maori) 46%
  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 35%
  • Dora Langsbury (Greens) 10%
  • Clinton Dealove (Mana) 9%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 29%
  • Phil Goff 10%
  • Pita Sharples 6%
  • Metiria Turei 6%
  • Tariana Turia 4%
  • Hone Harawira 4%

Government Direction

  • Right 35%
  • Wrong 55%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Pita Sharples 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Tariana Turia 10%
  • Rahui Katene 8%
  • Shane Jones 4%
  • Metiria Turei 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Jobs 15%
  • Education 13%
  • Economy 11%
  • Asset Sales 10%

Well being

  • Better Off 22%
  • Worse Off 46%
  • No difference 32%

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Fairfax poll on Epsom

Stuff reports:

A Fairfax Media-Research Media International mini-poll of 200 eligible Epsom voters showed National’s Paul Goldsmith easily winning the seat on 45.5 per cent.

ACT candidate John Banks trailed on 29.1 per cent, while Labour’s David Parker had 14.6 per cent. The snap poll, taken on Tuesday, showed last Friday’s meeting with National leader John Key shifted support away from Mr Banks.

Almost 30 per cent said they were now less likely to vote for him. Just under 23 per cent said Mr Key’s public endorsement made it more likely they would favour Mr Banks. About 43 per cent said it made no difference. However, the poll also showed almost 40 per cent were undecided over the blue-ribbon seat, suggesting voters were waiting to see if National needed ACT as a support partner.

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Waiariki poll November 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Waiariki electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Maori 40%
  • Labour 28%
  • Mana 15%
  • National 9%
  • NZ First 5%
  • Greens 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori) 56%
  • Louis Te Kani (Labour) 22%
  • Annette Sykes (Mana) 22%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 19%
  • Pita Sharples 9%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%
  • Hone Harawira 6%
  • Tariana Turia 4%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 60%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Te Ururoa Flavell 27%
  • Pita Sharples 15%
  • Hone Harawira 13%
  • Tariana Turia 9%
  • Shane Jones 5%
  • Metiria Turei 2%

Most Important Issue

  • Jobs 16%
  • Education 12%
  • Environment 9%
  • Economy 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 21%
  • Worse Off 44%
  • No difference 35%

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Waimakariri poll

The Press reports on a poll of 250 voters in Waimakariri:

Electorate Vote

  • Kate Wilkinson 53.9%
  • Clayton Cosgrove 36%
  • Undecided 23.5%

Party Vote

  • National 71.9%
  • Labour 17.4%

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Ohariu Poll

The Dom Post reports a poll 163 voters in Ohariu. The electorate vote is:

  • Peter Dunne 37.4%
  • Charles Chauvel 35.6%
  • Katrina Shanks 19%
  • Gareth Hughes 1.4%
  • Undecided 34.6%

 

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Te Tai Tokerau poll October 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Party Vote

  • Labour 27%
  • Maori 27%
  • Mana 25%
  • National 14%
  • Greens 4%
  • NZ Furst 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 42%
  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 35%
  • Waihoroi Shortland (Maori) 20%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Phil Goff 6%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
  • Kelvin Davis 2%

Government Direction

  • Right 29%
  • Wrong 58%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Hone Harawira 30%
  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Tariana Turia 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 18%
  • Employment 15%
  • Whanau 10%
  • Treaty Claims 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 20%
  • Worse Off 50%
  • No difference 30%

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