Posts Tagged Country Direction

Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1007 respondents of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15.4%

Dates:Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 22.5% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.3% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Conservative 3.4% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 29
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 11 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 47/124 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59.5% (+1.3%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.1% (-0.1%)

Country Direction

  • Right 65.4% (+1.3%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (-0.6%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 74% say should be harder for foreign investors to buy large farmland
  • 24% disagree
  • 53% say too much farmland has been sold
  • 41% disagree
  • 64% say NZ benefits from more foreign investment
  • 31% disagree

Political Donations

  • Reveal identity of all donors to political parties 68% agree
  • 31% disagree

Government Approval

  • 6.0/10 (no change

Time for change of Government

  • Yes 40% (-1%)
  • No 50% (-1%)
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Roy Morgan poll late July 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)

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Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

  • National 54.8% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
  • Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 1.2% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

  • John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters
  • Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
  • No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

  • Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
  • National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

  • Expect National 32.1%
  • Expect Labour 29.2%
  • Neither 20.2%
  • Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

  • 30% say focus should be public transport
  • 24% say roads
  • 40% say both
  • 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams

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Roy Morgan poll early July 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 774 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-4.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 48/122 – fourteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (nc)

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Roy Morgan poll late June 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 817 of whom 772 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 June to 29 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could form a Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First OR Labour could form a Government with both the Maori Party and NZ First (and Greens and NZ First).

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)

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Roy Morgan poll mid June 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 June to 15 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+7.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll National would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.0%)

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Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not

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