Archive for March 20, 2015

Roy Morgan poll March 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 865 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 02 March to 15 March 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National would need either the Maori Party or NZ First to govern, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-2.5%)
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