Archive for September, 2014

Palmerston North poll

The Manawatu Standard reports:

Two weeks out from election day the Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 401 eligible voters recorded 40 per cent support for Labour incumbent Iain Lees-Galloway and 39 per cent for his National challenger, Jono Naylor.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 882 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 30 August to 03 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.4% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/125 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1.0%)

Next National Party Leader

  • Bill English 28%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Paula Bennett 7%
  • Judith Collins 2%
  • Michael Woodhouse 2%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (nc)
  • Worse 17% (-2%)
  • Same 27% (+2%)

Preferred Housing Policies

  • National 44%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 31%

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NZ Herald DigiPoll early September 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key
  • Cunliffe
  • Peters
  • Norman

Coalition preferences

  • 47% say National should go with NZ First, 35% Conservatives
  • Among National voters, 47% Conservatives, 38% NZ First

Farmers and Environment

  • 47% agree that farmers were continually improving their practices and were unfairly criticised by environmentalists.
  • 39% of respondents agreed that farmers were moving too slowly to improve their practices
  • 7% said they deserve all the criticism they get from environmentalists

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Fairfax Ipsos poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13.0%

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.2% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
  • Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 31
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.6% (+2.6%)
  • David Cunliffe 15.8% (-2.1%)

 

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3 News Poll late late August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
  • Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45.1% (+3.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.4% (+0.3%)

 

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Roy Morgan poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 762 of whom 735 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 16.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Conservative 3.5% (+2.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 20 + Mana/Internet 1 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll NZ First would have the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

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