Archive for September, 2014

Fairfax Ipsos poll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.8% (-1.4%)
  • Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 29
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

  • 49% prefer National’s home start grants
  • 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 33%
  • Steven Joyce 22%
  • Paula Bennett 11%
  • Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

  • National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
  • Labour -5%
  • NZ First -3%
  • Greens -26%
  • Conservatives -9%
  • Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

  • City Rail Link 40% most important
  • 2nd harbour crossing 32%
  • Dominion Road upgrade 15%
  • Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

  • 55% support new suburbs
  • 38% build high rises

 

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NZ Herald DigiPoll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 682 had a party preference

Dates: 04 September to 10 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.6% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 24.6% (+0.8%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+2.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 48/124 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.6% (-7.3%)
  • Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.9%)
  • Peters 7.8% (+1.4%)
  • Norman 3.3% (+1.0%)

Labour Leadership

  • 45% say  Cunliffe should stay on regardless of result
  • 32% say he should resign and not contest leadership
  • 14% say he should resign and contest leadership

Dirty Politics

  • 81% say the book will not change the way they vote
  • 15% say it will

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 10 September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 865 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 06 September to 10 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 25.0% (-1.0%
  • Green 14.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 4.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 9 = 12/123

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

 

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3 News poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 01 to 08 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.7% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+0.2%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.7% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.9% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 4.7% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 2 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45.3% (+0.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (+0.9%)

 

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Tāmaki Makaurau poll September 2014

Apologies to Maori TV for a technical error around timezones leading to this appearing one hour before the embargo.

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Tāmaki Makaurau for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 37% (-5% from election)
  • Maori Party 17% (+3%)
  • National 13% (+5%)
  • Greens 9% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 12% (-2%)
  • NZ First 11% (+1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 28% (-12% from 2011 election)
  • Labour 27% (-8%)
  • Greens 7% (-1%)
  • Mana 14% (-2%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 95%
  • Education 94%
  • Child poverty 92%
  • Cost of living 91%
  • Te Reo Maori 91%
  • Maori unemployment 88%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 61%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 25%

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Waiariki poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Waiariki for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 35% (nc from election)
  • Maori Party 26% (+5%)
  • National 11% (+5%)
  • Greens 5% (-4%)
  • Internet Mana 14% (-3%)
  • NZ First 8% (-3%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 50% (+7%)
  • Labour 17% (-8%)
  • Greens 2% (+2%)
  • Mana 21% (-11%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 96%
  • Child poverty 96%
  • Cost of living 94%
  • Te Reo Maori 91%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 89%
  • Maori Leadership 84%
  • Mining 70%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 26%

Should Maori and Mana work together

  • Yes 66%
  • No 29%

 

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Ikaroa Rāwhiti Poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Ikaroa Rāwhiti  for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 45% (-5% from election)
  • Maori Party 14% (-1%)
  • National 10% (+4%)
  • Greens 8% (-1%)
  • Internet Mana 13% (+3%)
  • NZ First 10% (+2%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 18% (-2%)
  • Labour 37% (-4%)
  • Greens 6% (-5%)
  • Mana 21% (-5%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 94%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 93%
  • Cost of living 92%
  • Te Reo Maori 90%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 88%
  • Maori Leadership 83%
  • Mining 64%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 66%
  • Prefer National 20%

 

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