Archive for September 17, 2014

3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure
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Roy Morgan poll mid September 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 935 of whom 888 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 3.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 30
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 1 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First and the Maori Party would have the balance of power. National could govern with either of them, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (nc)

 

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