One News Colmar Brunton Poll 10 September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 865 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 06 September to 10 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 25.0% (-1.0%
  • Green 14.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 4.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 9 = 12/123

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

 

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