Archive for August, 2014

Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1007 respondents of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15.4%

Dates:Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 22.5% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.3% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Conservative 3.4% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 29
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 11 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 47/124 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59.5% (+1.3%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.1% (-0.1%)

Country Direction

  • Right 65.4% (+1.3%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (-0.6%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 74% say should be harder for foreign investors to buy large farmland
  • 24% disagree
  • 53% say too much farmland has been sold
  • 41% disagree
  • 64% say NZ benefits from more foreign investment
  • 31% disagree

Political Donations

  • Reveal identity of all donors to political parties 68% agree
  • 31% disagree

Government Approval

  • 6.0/10 (no change

Time for change of Government

  • Yes 40% (-1%)
  • No 50% (-1%)

Comments (1)

Colmar Brunton on vote switching

Leave a Comment

TVNZ Q+A Colmar Brunton poll in Epsom

One News reports:

Colmar Brunton Epsom poll results:

Who would you vote for with your electorate vote?

National Paul Goldsmith 44%
Act David Seymour 32%
Labour Michael Wood 10%
Green Julie Anne Genter 9%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea 0.8%
Independent Grace Haden 0.3%
Don’t know 8%

Were you aware John key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate?

Yes 70%
No 28%
Don’t know 2%

With this in mind, who would you now vote for with your electorate vote?

National Paul Goldsmith 31%
Act David Seymour 45%
Labour Michael Wood 9%
Green Julie Anne Genter 10%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea .08%
Independent Grace Haden 0.1%
Don’t know 13%

Do you support or oppose arrangements like the one John Key has made with the Act Party in Epsom?

Support 47%
Oppose 37%
Don’t know 16%

Which political party would you vote for?

National 60%
Green 16%
Labour 14%
NZ First 3.3%
Act 2.7%
Conservative 2.1%
Internet Mana 1.5%
Maori 0.6%
Don’t know 6%

Leave a Comment

Roy Morgan poll late July 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)

Leave a Comment

« Newer Posts