Archive for August 17, 2014

3 News Reid Research poll August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 7 to 12 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 58/124 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.1% (+0.3%)
  • Cunliffe 9.9% (-0.1%)
  • Peters 6.7% (+1.4%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 77% want stricter controls on foreign ownership of land, 20% do not
  • 68% against sale of Lochinver Station, 25% in favour

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One News Colmar Brunton poll August 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 824 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 9 to 13 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.9% (+1.9%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 5
  • NZ First 7
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 5 = 49/123 – 13 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 7 = 10/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1.0%)

 

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