Roy Morgan poll late July 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)
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