One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 828 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 19 to 23 July 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+1.0%)

 

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