Archive for February 20, 2014

Roy Morgan poll mid February 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)
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