Archive for February 15, 2014

Fairfax Ipsos poll Feb 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
  • Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
  • Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

  • 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

  • Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
  • No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

  • Support 48.5%
  • Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

  • Support 25.2%
  • Oppose 69.4%
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Roy Morgan poll early Feb 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 846 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 20 January to 02 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.01.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government,

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)

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