Archive for September 25, 2013

One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

UndecidedsDates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll September 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 43.7% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
  • Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
  • United Future
  • ACT
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 48
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
  • Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
  • Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

  • More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

  • Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
  • Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

  • 29% support
  • 60% opposition

Charter schools

  • 45% support
  • Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools

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