Roy Morgan poll early July 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 956 of whom 918 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 01 July 2013 to 14 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.5%)
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