Fairfax Ipsos poll December 2012

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,062 of whom 955 have a party preference

Undecideds: 9.0%

Dates: 28 November 2012 to 03 December 2012

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 46.2% (+1.3%)
  • Labour 34.4% (+1.8%)
  • Green 10.5% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.9% (-0.9%)
  • Wrong 51.1% (+0.9%)
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