Roy Morgan poll late May 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 944, of whom 906 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 14 May 2012 to 27 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 5 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 38.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%)
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