Roy Morgan poll early May 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894, of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 30 April 2012 to 13 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 6 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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