Archive for May 7, 2012

Roy Morgan poll late April 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 889, of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 April 2012 to 29 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – 3 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – 1 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-1.0%)
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Comments (1)

Epsom poll

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home.

More said they would vote for a Labour candidate than for Banks. In a party vote, the vast majority would vote National, and fewer than 1 per cent would vote Act.

Nearly half of voters – 46.7 per cent – say they have a lower opinion of Banks after his statements of the past week on local government election donations.

The telephone survey of 510 eligible voters in the Epsom electorate aged 18+ has a margin of error of +/- 4.34 per cent.

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