Archive for November, 2011

3 News Reid Research Poll 13 November 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 3 November to 10 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 53.3% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-0.3%)
  • Green 10.2% (+0.8%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.0% (-2.7%)
  • Goff 12.4% (+2.6%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.9% (-2.2%) doing well vs 17.2% (-0.7%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.7% (-1.5%)
  • Goff  – 34.6% (+6.2%) doing well vs 44.8% (-9.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -10.2% (+15.6%)

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Waimakariri poll

The Press reports on a poll of 250 voters in Waimakariri:

Electorate Vote

  • Kate Wilkinson 53.9%
  • Clayton Cosgrove 36%
  • Undecided 23.5%

Party Vote

  • National 71.9%
  • Labour 17.4%

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Ohariu Poll

The Dom Post reports a poll 163 voters in Ohariu. The electorate vote is:

  • Peter Dunne 37.4%
  • Charles Chauvel 35.6%
  • Katrina Shanks 19%
  • Gareth Hughes 1.4%
  • Undecided 34.6%

 

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Roy Morgan early November 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)

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NZ Herald Digipoll 11 November 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.1%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 689 had a party vote preference

Dates: 03 to 09 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 28.7% (-1.2%)
  • Green 12.6% (+1.6%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 0.5% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 0.8% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 36
  • Green 16
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 53/124 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 68.5% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 17.9% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 10 November 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Estimate 1000

Undecideds:

Dates: 05 November to 09 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.8% (+0.7%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 2.9% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 48/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55% (-3%)
  • Phil Goff 14% (+4%)

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Fairfax Research International poll early November 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 03 to 07 November 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-0.1%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-5.4%)
  • Green 12.6% (+2.9%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+1.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 50/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.2% (-0.6%)
  • Phil Goff 13.5% (+4.4%)

 

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Tamaki Makaurau poll October 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Labour 32%
  • Maori 28%
  • National 17%
  • Mana 13%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 4%

Electorate Vote

  • Pita Sharples (Maori) 58%
  • Shane Jones (Labour) 23%
  • Kereama Pene (Mana) 14%
  • Mikaere Curtis (Greens) 3%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 28%
  • Pita Sharples 13%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Hone Harawira 7%
  • Tariana Turia 3%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 59%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Pita Sharples 36%
  • Hone Harawira 20%
  • Shane Jones 11%
  • Winston Peters 4%
  • Metiria Turei 4%
  • Parekura Horomia 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 12%
  • Employment 16%
  • Economy 10%
  • Health 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 27%
  • Worse Off 43%
  • No difference 30%

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UMR on foreign ownership

Stuff reports:

A UMR Research survey, commissioned by a North Island farmer group trying to buy the in-receivership Crafar dairy farms against a Chinese bid, showed 82 per cent of 500 respondents believed foreign ownership of farms and agriculture land was a “bad thing”. Only 10 per cent believed it a “good thing” and 8 per cent were unsure.

The online poll, which weighed and matched data with census data to ensure a nationally representative sample, also found Kiwis are not xenophobic in opposing a Crafar sale to the Chinese.

The main reasons given for not selling to foreign companies were to keep control of our primary resource, and so that Kiwis benefited from exports, not foreigners.

Though 81 per cent opposed Chinese companies being allowed to buy agricultural land, 76 per cent were against US buyers, 67 per cent did not want British companies buying, and Australia got a 54 per cent thumbs down.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 29 October to 2 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 49/122 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 56% (-3%)
  • Phil Goff 12% (+4%)

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