Archive for November 25, 2011

Roy Morgan poll 24 November 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 959, of whom 921 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 22 to 24 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+3.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 29
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 18 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.5% (-11.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 19.5% (+4.0%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll 25 November 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.7%

Poll Size: 850 respondents, of whom 785 had a party vote preference

Dates: 17 to 23 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.9% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.8% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 5.2% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-01.%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/126 – 2 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 56/126 -8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.3% (-2.2%)
  • Goff 19.5% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)

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