One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 29 October to 2 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 49/122 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 56% (-3%)
  • Phil Goff 12% (+4%)
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