Marae Digipoll September 2011

Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.

The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Maori 22.2%
  • National 16.4%
  • Mana 8.5%
  • Green 6.5%
  • NZ First 5.1%
  • ACT 1.0%

Party Vote – General roll Maori voters

  • Labour 43.5%
  • Maori 11.7%
  • National 22.4%
  • Mana 1.6%
  • Green 8.1%
  • NZ First 7.1%
  • ACT 2.9%

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

  • Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
  • Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
  • National 13.2% (7.4%)
  • Mana 12.0%
  • Green 5.6% (3.9%)
  • NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)

  • Maori 37.5%
  • Labour 35.1%
  • Mana 13.8%
  • National 5.6%
  • Green 2.5%
  • NZ First 2.5%

Te Tai Tokerau

  • Labour 30.2%
  • Mana 28.6%
  • Maori 22.2%

Tamaki Makaurau

  • Maori 46.1%
  • Labour 30.4%
  • Mana 15.7%

Waiariki

  • Maori 59.3%
  • Mana 18.7%
  • Labour 8.8%

Te Tai Tonga

  • Labour 41.4%%
  • Maori 34.5%
  • Mana 3.4%

Tainui

  • Labour 58.8%%
  • Maori 12.9%
  • Mana 17.6%

Te Tai Hauauru

  • Labour 40.3%%
  • Maori 48.6%%
  • Mana 1.4%

Ikaroa Rawhiti

  • Labour 40.5%%
  • Maori 31.6%
  • NZ First 10.1%
  • Mana 8.9%

With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:

  • Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
  • Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
  • Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
  • Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
  • Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability

Has Maori Party represented Maori well?

  • Yes 56%
  • No 34%

Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?

  • Yes 54%
  • No 28%

Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?

  • Yes 69%
  • No 21%

Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?

  • Yes 35%
  • No 54%

Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?

  • Yes 47%
  • No 31%

Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?

  • Yes 77%
  • No 9%

Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?

  • Yes 55%
  • No 35%

Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?

  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Tariana Turia 20%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Winston Peters 3.8%
  • Shane Jones 3.6%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 33%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Tariana Turia 4.8%
  • Phil Goff 4.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.9%
  • Winston Peters 3.7%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
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4 Comments »

  1. […] « That’s a good passThe Marae Digipoll I’ve blogged at Curiablog the full results from the Marae Digipoll. There’s heaps to read there. The electorate numbers are quite small per electorate, so […]

  2. […] the answer to that but National doesn’t stand candidates in the Maori electorates and the latest Marae Digipoll shows the party has 22.4% of support from Maori on the general roll compared with only 13.2% […]

  3. […] latest Marae Digipoll shows National support in Maori electorates while still low is increasing. That is likely to […]

  4. […] poll from Te Karere on this electorate but the Marae Digipoll from September put it like […]

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