Archive for October 1, 2011

Roy Morgan late September 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 788, of whom 773 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 12 September to 25 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-+4.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-2.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)
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