Archive for September 5, 2011

Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)

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Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 57.1% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
  • Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

  • 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
  • 11% say less likely
  • 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

  • 68% think NZ will win
  • 11% Australia
  • 7% South Africa
  • 2% England

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NZ Herald Digipoll August 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 26 August 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.6%)
  • Green 9.8% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 69.7% (-0.6%)
  • Goff 11.5% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 5.2% (+2.2%)
  • Clark 5.8% (-2.1%)

Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 32.2% (-1.6%)
  • Unsure 8.3% (-0.4%)

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3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
  • Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 53% (+2.5%)
  • Goff 8% (+1.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
  • Goff  – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)

Policy Preference

  • 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006, of whom 847 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 August 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-4.0%)
  • ACT 1.7% (-1.4%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-1.6%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57% (+3%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (-1%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 49% (-3%)
  • Worse 31% (+3%)
  • Same 19% (-1%)
Rugby World Cup
  • Hosting cost of $40m is money well spent – 54% agree, 40% disagree
  •  50% less likely to buy Adidas in future due to jersey prices
  • 69% think All Blacks will win, 17% do not

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