Roy Morgan Poll early August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 921, of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 25 July to 7 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 39
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 6 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)
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