Roy Morgan Poll early July 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 27 June to 10 July 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (-0.5%)
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