Archive for July 21, 2011

One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 9 to 13 July 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.6%)
  • United Future 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 46/121 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54% (+1%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+15)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (+4%)
  • Worse 28% (-5%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)
Capital Gains Tax
  • Support 43%
  • Oppose 49%
  • Don’t Know 9%
Raise tax rate to 39% for those over $120,000
  • Support 42%
  • Oppose 54%
  • Don’t Know 5%
Most trusted party to manage economy
  • National 53%
  • Labour 24%
  • Greens 2%
  • ACT 1%
  • Don’t Know 13%
Best Finance Minister
  • Bill English 49%
  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Don’t Know 23%
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Roy Morgan Poll early July 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 27 June to 10 July 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (-0.5%)

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