Roy Morgan Poll early May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858, of whom 794 have a party preference

Dates: 02 May to 15 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (-3.0%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 35
• Green 12
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (+3.0%)
• Wrong 30.0% (-4.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.5%)