Roy Morgan Poll early May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858, of whom 794 have a party preference

Dates: 02 May to 15 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.5%)
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