Roy Morgan Poll late September 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 820, of whom 750 have a party preference

Dates: 20 September to 03 October 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (=1.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 45
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the exact minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 10 = 55/124 – 7 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.5% (+2.5%)
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