Roy Morgan Poll late July 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 912, of whom 839 have a party preference

Dates: 19 July to 01 August 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-2.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 42
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 8 = 50/121 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-7.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+6.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
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