Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)
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