Archive for February 1, 2010

Te Karere Digipoll January 2010

Digipoll did a poll of 1,002 Maori voters between the 6th and 27th of January 2010.  685 (68%) were from the Maori Roll and 317 (32%) from the General Roll.

For each result, I give the overall result, then the response for those on the Maori roll and then General Roll.

Party Vote

  • Maori Party 38.3%, 51.2%, 11.30%
  • Labour 27.9%, 31.6%, 51.0%
  • National 16.9%, 11.4%, 28.4%l
  • Greens 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4%

Preferred PM

  • Key 30.5%, 27.9%, 36.0%
  • Sharples 11.8%, 14.9%, 5.2%
  • Peters 7.0%, 6.0%, 9.2%
  • Turia 4.9%, 6.8%, 1.5%
  • Goff 4.6%, 3.9%, 6.5%
  • Clark 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.0%
  • Harawira 3.0%, 4.5%, 0.3%
  • Jones 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.5%

Does John Key/Phil Goff provide good leadership on Maori issues?

  • John Key Yes – 46.7%, 49.5%, 42.5%
  • John Key No – 37.1%, 36.0%, 40.0%
  • Phil Goff Yes – 18.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%
  • Phil Goff No – 58.9%, 61.9%, 55.1%

Is Phil Goff best person to lead Labour (asked of Labour voters only)?

  • Yes 36.0%, 34.4%, 38.3%
  • No 48.1%, 49.0%, 37.7%
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Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)

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