Roy Morgan December 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 November to 13 December 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 48/124 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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