Roy Morgan mid November 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 November to 15 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/123 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 22.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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