One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know
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