Archive for December 6, 2009

UMR on MMP

UMR did a poll of 750 New Zealanders from 22 to 27 October 2009.

Favoured alternatives to MMP:

  • FPP 29%
  • STV 20%
  • SM 9%
  • Not Know enough 32%
  • Unsure 9%

Retain MMP:

  • Retain 48%
  • Change 40%
  • Unsure 11%

Hold $20 million referendum:

  • Yes 32%
  • No 60%
  • Unsure 8%

Success of MMP (net ratings)

  • More Maori MPs +31%
  • More co-operation +27%
  • Prlt more representative +24%
  • More women MPs +22%
  • Legislation consulted more +9%
  • Stable Govt +7%
  • Make MPs listen +1%
  • Harder for parties to break word -2%
  • Foster national unity -5%
  • Sound economic policies -5%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know

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Roy Morgan mid November 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 November to 15 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/123 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 22.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)

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Roy Morgan early November 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 October to 01 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/121 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+2.0%)

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