Roy Morgan Poll early September 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 31 August to 13 September 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 51/123 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 8.0% (-4.5%)
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