Roy Morgan late August 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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