Archive for August 16, 2009

TV3 Poll August 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 58.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
  • Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)

Comments (1)

Roy Morgan Poll late July 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 July to 2 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)

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