Archive for May 26, 2009

Roy Morgan Poll late May 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 985 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 38
  • Green 2
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 19.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%

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