TV3 Poll April 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, 947 decided (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 April to 21 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 6.1% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Maori 2.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.3% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 73/123 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 45/123 -17 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Preferred PM

  • Key 51.1% (-0.9%)
  • Clark 11.5% (-2.3%)
  • Goff 9.1% (+5.4%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 80.2% (+1.2%) doing well vs 7.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 72.9% (-0.1%)
  • Goff  – 42.2% (-0.8%) doing well vs 28.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 13.9% (-2.1%)

Leadership Characteristics

  • capable leader – Key by 32%
  • good in a crisis – Key by 24%
  • sound judgement – Key by 20%
  • honest – Key by 13%
  • down to earth – Key by 9%
  • understands economic problems – Key by 22%
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 27%
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 2%
  • more style than substance – Key by 10%
  • talk down to people – Goff by 11%
  • narrow minded – Goff by 12%
  • inflexible – Goff by 11%
  • inexperienced – Key by 22%
  • out of touch  – Goff by 3%
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