Rasmussen on Obama’s poll numbers

Scott Rasmussen (the most accurate pollster in the 2008 election) comments in the Wall Street Journal on Obama’s poll numbers:

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president’s performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration’s policies and their impact on peoples’ lives.

And specifically on the stimulus:

Recent Gallup data echo these concerns. That polling shows that there are deep-seated, underlying economic concerns. Eighty-three percent say they are worried that the steps Mr. Obama is taking to fix the economy may not work and the economy will get worse. Eighty-two percent say they are worried about the amount of money being added to the deficit. Seventy-eight percent are worried about inflation growing, and 69% say they are worried about the increasing role of the government in the U.S. economy.

When Gallup asked whether we should be spending more or less in the economic stimulus, by close to 3-to-1 margin voters said it is better to have spent less than to have spent more. When asked whether we are adding too much to the deficit or spending too little to improve the economy, by close to a 3-to-2 margin voters said that we are adding too much to the deficit.

Support for the stimulus package is dropping from narrow majority support to below that. There is no sense that the stimulus package itself will work quickly, and according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, close to 60% said it would make only a marginal difference in the next two to four years. Rasmussen data shows that people now actually oppose Mr. Obama’s budget, 46% to 41%. Three-quarters take this position because it will lead to too much spending. And by 2-to-1, voters reject House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s call for a second stimulus package.

Rasmussen is one of the most respected independent pollsters. However he is relatively isolated with his commentary on Obama, and not many of his peers agree. It will be interesting to see where the polls go on Obama over the new few months.


  1. adamsmith1922 said

    Rasmussen seems to have got it right to my mind. Far too much of the stimulus so called is earmarks and Democratic pork, rather than stimulus.

    Much will be spent far too late.

    Obama made a major error of judgment when he let Pelosi and her cronies craft the package. It was an abject failure of leadership. He deserves to be pilloried for that error.

  2. strayan said

    Now, I share the doubts of many as to the efficacy of the approach of the Obama administration, but I’m not yet convinced that the American public have turned against their new president.

    The most accurate predictor of the outcome of the last presidential election was not Rasmussen’s but Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com (technically he’s not a pollster but an aggregator of polls, but the point remains). I’m sure you’ve heard of him.

    He has some very persuasive things to say about why Rassmussen is wrong:-


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