TV3 Poll February 2009

Polling Company: TNS (under a new name)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Published 18 Feb, so probably from 10 to 15 Feb 2009

Client: TV3

Report: None online

Party Support

  • National 60.0% (+14.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-6.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.1% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 74 = 74/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 5  = 48/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National, and Greens, Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour, with Maori Party able to go either way.

Preferred PM

  • Key 52.0% (+15.4%)
  • Clark 13.8% (-20.4%)
  • Goff 3.7% (+3.7%)
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