Archive for March 7, 2009

Roy Morgan Poll late February 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 February to 1 March 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+7.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-6.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 = 44/122 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 69.0% (+5.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-3.5%)

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Roy Morgan Poll mid February 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 2 January to 15 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.05%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 40
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 57/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+1.0%)

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TV3 Poll February 2009

Polling Company: TNS (under a new name)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Published 18 Feb, so probably from 10 to 15 Feb 2009

Client: TV3

Report: None online

Party Support

  • National 60.0% (+14.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-6.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.1% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 74 = 74/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 5  = 48/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National, and Greens, Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour, with Maori Party able to go either way.

Preferred PM

  • Key 52.0% (+15.4%)
  • Clark 13.8% (-20.4%)
  • Goff 3.7% (+3.7%)

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll February 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters, 877  likely voters (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 February to 19 February 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+9.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+2.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 1.4% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 35
  • Green 7
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 70 = 70/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 5 = 48/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Economic Outlook

  • 37% economy over next 12 months will be better (-4.0%)
  • 21% same (+2.0%)
  • 42% worse (+2.0)
Jobs
  • 22% worried they could close their job
  • 66% not worried
  • 8% do not have a job
  • 2% have lost their jobs
  • 2% don’t know
Labour Leadership
  • 53% could name Phil Goff as Labour Leader
  • 13% could name Annette King as Deputy Leader of Labour

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