Roy Morgan late January 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 982 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 January to 1 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 4 = 64/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 56/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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