Archive for November 7, 2008

Fairfax Poll November 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000

Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0%  (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll November 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 981 respondents of whom 920 (6.1% are undecided) were decided, (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 29 October to 02 November 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story

Party Support

  • National 47.9% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 36.4% (-0.6%)
  • Green 5.8% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.8%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.6%)
  • Progressive 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 + ACT 2 = 63/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 4 = 58/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.2 (+1.6%)
  • Clark 41.6% (-3.8%)
  • Peters 5.0% (+1.0%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 34.6% (+6.6%)

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