Archive for October 25, 2008

Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 743 (3.7% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 19 October 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Other 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 55 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 15 + Maori 6 = 63/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (+5.0%)
  • Wrong 34.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)

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