Archive for October 24, 2008

Herald Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents of whom 657 (12.4% are undecided) were decided, (3.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 22 October 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+1.3%)
  • Green 5.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 2.4% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/125 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.8 (-0.7%)
  • Clark 45.4% (+2.3%)
  • Peters 4.0% (-1.6%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 34.6% (+6.6%)
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