Archive for October 20, 2008

One News Colmar Brunton on Economic Management

The One News Colmar Brunton poll asked respondents who they blame for NZ’s economic strife:

  • 35% say international forces
  • 14% say NZ Govt
  • 49% say both

On the issue of who they most trust to manage the economy:

  • 48% John Key
  • 41% Helen Clark
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Waiariki Marae-Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Waiariki voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 September to 14 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 33.8%
  • Maori Party 48.9%
  • NZ First 6.3%
  • National 6.3%
  • Green 1.4%

Candidate Support

  • Mita Ririnui, Labour 22.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell, Maori Party 72.8%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 48.2%
  • Winston Peters 5.2%
  • Pita Sharples 3.5%
  • John Key 6.1%
  • Tariana Turia 7.6%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.9%
  • No 35.3%
  • Don’t Know 17.8%
Te Ururoa Flavell Performance
  • Very Satisfied 28.3%
  • Satisfied 56.3%
  • Not Satisfied 5.4%
  • Don’t Know 9.8%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 27.9%
  • Pita Sharples 20.1%
  • Hone Harawira 5.6%
  • Tariana Turia 6.8%
  • Winston Peters 7.3%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 21.7%
  • Education 14.7%
  • Law & Order 7.2%
  • Health 10.4%
  • Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 74.3% support, 19.4% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 24.2% support, 65.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 10.5%
  • Maori first 73.0%
  • Both 16.2%

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Te Tai Hauauru Marae-Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Hauauru voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 September to 14 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 42.5%
  • Maori Party 44.0%
  • NZ First 1.9%
  • National 7.7%
  • Green 2.1%

Candidate Support

  • Errol Mason, Labour 15.1%
  • Tariana Turia, Maori Party 77.7%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 46.8%
  • Tariana Turia 10.5%
  • Pita Sharples 8.5%
  • John Key 6.1%
  • Winston Peters 3.7%
Country Direction
  • Right 50.9%
  • No 32.8%
  • Don’t Know 16.2%
Tariana Turia Performance
  • Very Satisfied 29.7%
  • Satisfied 50.8%
  • Not Satisfied 8.1%
  • Don’t Know 11.3%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Tariana Turia 26.8%
  • Pita Sharples 23.2%
  • Hone Harawira 6.8%
  • Winston Peters 5.7%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 16.9%
  • Health 13.0%
  • Family Issues 11.2%
  • Education 9.5%
  • Law & Order 6.6%
  • Unemployment 5.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 77.4% support, 15.0% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 28.7% support, 60.4% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 9.0%
  • Maori first 72.8%
  • Both 17.7%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 19 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 total voters and 861 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error) as 9% unsure or refused on party vote.

Dates: 11 October to 16 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.1% (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 2.1% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 44
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 62 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 58/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+1.0%)
  • Clark 34.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (nc)

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